Services

Forecasting & Scenario Modeling

All Eyes on the Future

The ability to make reliable predictions is essential for those who guide and course-correct strategic decisions. But envisioning the future is one thing. Putting numbers to it is another.

As a discipline, forecasting is beset by particular challenges – among them, the questionable reliability of consumer predictions, the complex uncertainties of future market events, and the potential impact of modeling error on revenue outcomes. Add to those the growing potential for disruptive technology to further cloud the view. In times of unprecedented change, models used successfully by a company for years may need to be revisited to ensure that they are still predictive of the “next” future.

The Proficiency and Perspective to Help Make Tough Calls

NAXION does forecasting exceptionally well, based on decades of experience making the toughest kinds of predictions – forecasting the success of paradigm-shift technologies of all kinds. Our Farsight® predictive modeling suite is versatile and highly customizable to accommodate a range of forecasting problems and market structures. And it’s built for the crucial task of predicting outcomes in situations of significant uncertainty.

But statistical outcomes are just the beginning. The process of transforming preference shares into revenue forecasts needs to take account of market history and current context. Context can include analog markets and input from thought leaders and stakeholders as well as powerful qualitative insights from consumers to pressure-test survey statistics. Even clients with their own models count on us for informed perspectives on interpretation of the data we supply.

Examples of forecasts we’ve produced include:

  • COVID vaccine uptake and share dynamics in US and global markets during an unfolding pandemic
  • The effect of other paradigm-changing medical technologies, from adoption of cancer drug innovation to changes in cardiac imaging and ultrasound technology
  • Uptake of cloud technology and other transformative information technology advances

While we specialize in building models from scratch, we also supply statistical inputs for internal corporate models, working closely with client teams to create perfect alignment between their models and our data.

A Powerful, Versatile Toolkit in Experienced Hands

Our exceptionally skilled modeling statisticians have decades of experience working closely with NAXION practice leaders in the design and application of forecast models that match markets and client objectives. NAXION’s Farsight® suite gives them the tools to do it.

  • HB choice-based models with greater flexibility than widely used off-the-shelf software products, able to accommodate complex decision structures and other unusual circumstances
  • Multi-stakeholder models that integrate inputs from various gatekeepers and decision-makers – for instance, patients, physicians, and payers or multiple decision-makers within an organization
  • Time-series models that take account of market iteration and evolution, including new launches, new information, and new market structures
  • A proprietary adaptive conjoint model, Adaption, that varies scenarios on the fly in response to a respondent’s prior choices, producing greater measurement sensitivity around products of greatest market interest without increasing burden
  • Clear points of view on model design considerations, including stimulus and choice presentation, question format, dampening effects, and transformation from share of preference to share of market
  • A suite of highly customized, easy-to-use desktop software tools that give clients hands-on capability to simulate outcomes, dialing in assumptions about selected variables – for instance, product performance, competitors, market awareness, manufacturing costs, and other factors with bearing on future revenue streams

Illuminating the Black Box to Support Informed Decisions

We believe transparency is the key to models that predict well and earn the organizational confidence to guide high-risk enterprise decisions. We work hard to ensure that client teams understand the critical model design decisions that need to be made and that we fully understand stakeholder priorities so that the model-building process is informed, collaborative, and responsive.